Misplaced Pages

Revision as of 14:14, 6 December 2010

In armed conflicts, the civilian casualty ratio (also civilian death ratio, civilian-combatant ratio, etc.) is the ratio of civilian casualties to combatant casualties, or total casualties. The measurement can apply either to casualties inflicted by a particular belligerent, or to casualties in the conflict as a whole.

According to a 2001 study by the International Committee of the Red Cross, the civilian-to-soldier death ratio in wars fought since the mid-20th century has been 10:1, meaning ten civilian deaths for every soldier death.

Mary Kaldor writes that the civilian to combatant casualty ratio was 8:1 in wars in the 1990s, meaning eight civilian deaths for every combatant death. This constitutes a reversal of the ratio at the turn of the 20th Century, which stood at 1:8, meaning only one civilian death for every eight combatant deaths.

Mexican Revolution (1910–20)

Although it's estimated at least 1 million people died in the Mexican Revolution, most died from disease and hunger as an indirect result of the war. Combat deaths are generally agreed to have totaled about 250,000. According to Eckhardt, these included 125,000 civilian deaths and 125,000 military deaths, creating a civilian-combatant death ratio of 1:1 among combat deaths.

Korean War

The median total estimated Korean civilian deaths in the Korean War is 1,547,000. The median total estimated Korean military deaths is 429,827. The civilian-combatant death ratio among Korean casualties is 36:10.

Chechen wars

During the First Chechen War, 4,000 separatist fighters and 40,000 civilians are estimated to have died, giving a civilian-combatant ratio of 10:1. The numbers for the Second Chechen War are 3,000 fighters and 13,000 civilians, for a ratio of 43:10. The combined ratio for both wars is 76:10. The casualty numbers for the conflict are notoriously unrealiable. The estimates of the civilian casualties during the First Chechen war range from 20,000 to 100,000, with remaining numbers being similarly unrealiable.

NATO in Yugoslavia

According to military historian and Israeli Ambassador to the United States Michael Oren, for every Serbian soldier killed by NATO in 1999 (the period in which Operation Allied Force took place), four civilians died, a civilian to combatant casualty ratio of 4:1. Oren cites this figure as evidence that "even the most moral army can make mistakes, especially in dense urban warfare".

Coalition forces in the Iraq War

According to a 2010 assessment by John Sloboda of Iraq Body Count, a United Kingdom-based organization, American and Coalition forces had killed at least 22,668 combatants as well as 13,807 civilians in the Iraq War, indicating an essential civilian to combatant casualty ratio of 1:2.

US drone strikes in Pakistan

According to a report by Daniel L. Byman of the Brookings Institution, United States drone strikes in Pakistan kill "10 or so civilians" for every militant killed, a civilian to combatant casualty ratio of 10:1. Byman argues that this ratio constitutes a humanitarian tragedy and creates dangerous political problems, including damage to the legitimacy of the Pakistani government and alienation of the Pakistani populace from America.

Israel in the Israel-Gaza conflict

Israel's military activities in the Israel-Gaza conflict have included a campaign of targeted assassinations of militants in the Gaza Strip since 2000, as well as several concentrated operations, the most severe of which was Operation Cast Lead during the 2008–2009 Gaza War.

Targeted assassinations

The civilian casualty rate of the targeted assassinations was surveyed by Haaretz military journalist Amos Harel. In 2002 and 2003, the ratio was 1:1, meaning one civilian killed for every militant killed. Harel called this period "the dark days" because of the relatively high civilian death toll as compared to later years. He attributed this to an Israeli Air Force (IAF) practice of attacking militants even when they were located in densely populated areas. While there were always safety rules, argued Harel, these were "bent" at times in view of the target's importance.

The civilian casualty ratio dropped steeply to 1:28 in late 2005, meaning one civilian killed for every 28 militants killed. Harel credited this drop to the new IAF chief Eliezer Shkedi's policies. The ratio rose again in 2006 to 1:10, a fact that Harel blamed on "several IAF mishaps". However, in 2007 and 2008 the ratio dropped to an unprecedented level of less than 1:30, or 2–3 percent of the total casualties being civilian.

Figures showing an improvement from 1:1 in 2002 to 1:30 in 2008 were also cited by Jerusalem Post journalist Yaakov Katz. Katz attributes the IDF's low ratio in the year preceding the Gaza War to Israel's investment in special weapons systems, including small smart bombs that minimize collateral damage, and to an upscaled Israeli effort to warn civilians to flee areas and to divert missiles at the last moment if civilians entered a planned strike zone.

Gaza War

Several analysts have attempted to calculate the Israel Defense Force's cvilian casualty ratio in Operation Cast Lead during the Gaza War. All have noted that the ratio differs significantly depending on which figures are used regarding the total number of casualties and their identity. The main sets of figures are those published by the IDF, essentially corroborated by Hamas, the opposing belligerent in the conflict, on the one hand; and those published by B'Tselem on the other hand.

Journalist Yaakov Katz states in The Jerusalem Post states that over 81 percent of the 5,000 missiles the IDF dropped in the Gaza Strip during the operation were smart bombs, a percentage which he describes as unprecedented in modern warfare. In spite of this, Katz states that the ratio of civilians to combatants killed in the operation was 1:3 according to the Israeli figures and 60% civilians (3:2) according to B'Tselem's figures, with the latter figure being "not greatly dissimilar" to estimates for the Iraq War. The UN-sponsored Goldstone Report accused Israel of committing war crimes and possible crimes against humanity during the war. Israel rejected the report's findings.

See also

• Collateral damage
• Asymmetric warfare
• Fourth generation warfare
• Loss exchange ratio
• Just war

• Distinction
• Proportionality
• Military necessity

References

1. Sabrina Tavernise and Andrew W. Lehren, A Grim Portrait of Civilian Deaths in Iraq, New York Times 22-10-2010
2. Mary Kaldor, New and Old Wars, Stanford University Press 1998, p. 9
3. Twentieth Century Atlas – Death Tolls. Users.erols.com. Retrieved on 2010-11-28.
4. Missing Millions: The human cost of the Mexican Revolution, 1910–1930. Hist.umn.edu. Retrieved on 2010-11-28.
5. Twentieth Century Atlas – Death Tolls. Users.erols.com. Retrieved on 2010-11-29.
6. Zürcher, Christoph. The post-Soviet wars: rebellion, ethnic conflict, and nationhood in the Caucasus. p. 100.
7. Michael Oren, UN report a victory for terror, Boston Globe 24-09-2009
8. ^ Yaakov Katz, Analysis: Lies, leaks, death tolls & statistics, Jerusalem Post 29-10-2010
9. Daniel L. Byman, Do Targeted Killings Work?, Brookings 14-07-2009
10. ^ Amos Harel, Pinpoint attacks on Gaza more precise, Haaretz (unknown date)
11. "Israel denies Gaza war crimes in report to UN", Rory McCarthy, irishtimes.com, 2010-02-01.

• Ratios
• War
• War on Terror