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faq page Frequently asked questions To view an answer, click the link to the right of the question. To view references used by an answer, you must also click the for references at the bottom of the FAQ. Q1: Is there really a scientific consensus on climate change? A1: Yes. The IPCC findings of recent warming as a result of human influence are explicitly recognized as the "consensus" scientific view by the science academies of all the major industrialized countries. No scientific body of national or international standing presently rejects the basic findings of human influence on recent climate. This scientific consensus is supported by over 99% of publishing climate scientists. See also: Scientific consensus on climate change Q2: How can we say climate change is real when it's been so cold in such-and-such a place? A2: This is why it is termed "global warming", not "(such-and-such a place) warming". Even then, what rises is the average temperature over time – that is, the temperature will fluctuate up and down within the overall rising trend. To give an idea of the relevant time scales, the standard averaging period specified by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) is 30 years. Accordingly, the WMO defines climate change as "a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer)." Q3: Can't the increase of CO2 be from natural sources, like volcanoes or the oceans? A3: While these claims are popular among global warming skeptics, including academically trained ones, they are incorrect. This is known from any of several perspectives: Current human emissions of CO2 are at least 100 times larger than volcanic emissions. Measurements of CO2 levels over the past 50 years do not show any significant rises after eruptions. This is easily seen in a graph of CO2 concentrations over the past 50 years: the strongest eruption during the period, that of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, produced no increase in the trend. Isotopic analysis of atmospheric carbon dioxide shows the observed change in the ratio of carbon isotopes reflects the isotopic ratios in fossil fuels. Atmospheric oxygen content is decreasing at a rate that agrees with the amount of oxygen being used to burn fossil fuels. If the oceans were giving up some of their carbon dioxide, their carbon dioxide concentration would have to decrease. But instead we are measuring an increase in the oceans' carbon dioxide concentration, resulting in the oceans becoming more acidic (or in other words, less basic). Q4: I think the article is missing some things, or has some things wrong. Can I change it? A4: Yes. Keep in mind that your points need to be based on documented evidence from the peer-reviewed literature, or other information that meets standards of verifiability, reliability, and no original research. If you do not have such evidence, more experienced editors may be able to help you find it (or confirm that such evidence does not exist). You are welcome to make such queries on the article's talk page but please keep in mind that the talk page is for discussing improvements to the article, not discussing the topic. There are many forums that welcome general discussions of global warming, but the article talk page is not such a forum. Q5: Why haven't the graphs been updated? A5: Two reasons: There are many images used in the articles related to global warming, and there are many reasons why they may not be updated with the latest data. Some of the figures, like the Global Warming Map, are static, meaning that they are intended to show a particular phenomenon and are not meant to be updated frequently or at all. Others, like the Instrumental Temperature Record and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent Anomalies, use yearly data and thus are updated once per year—usually in mid- to late-January, depending upon when the data is publicly released, and when a volunteer creates the image. Still others, like Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide, use monthly data. These are updated semi-regularly. However, just because an image is 6 months or a year old does not mean it is useless. Robert A. Heinlein is credited with saying, "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", meaning that climate is defined as a long-term average of weather, usually about 30 years. This length was chosen to eliminate the year-to-year variations. Thus, in terms of climate change, any given year's data is of little import. Q6: Isn't climate change "just a theory"? A6: People who say this are abusing the word "theory" by conflating its common meaning with its scientific meaning. In common usage, "theory" can mean a hunch or guess, but a scientific theory, roughly speaking, means a coherent set of explanations that is compatible with observations and that allows predictions to be made. That the temperature is rising is an observation. An explanation for this (also known as a hypothesis) is that the warming is primarily driven by greenhouse gases (such as CO2 and methane) released into the atmosphere by human activity. Scientific models have been built that predict the rise in temperature and these predictions have matched observations. When scientists gain confidence in a hypothesis because it matches observation and has survived intense scrutiny, the hypothesis may be called a "theory". Strictly speaking, scientific theories are never proven, but the degree of confidence in a theory can be discussed. The scientific models now suggest that it is "extremely likely" (>95%) to "virtually certain" (>99%) that the increases in temperature have been caused by human activity as discussed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Global warming via greenhouse gases by human activity is a theory (in the scientific sense), but it is most definitely not just a hunch or guess. Q7: Does methane cause more warming than CO2? A7: It's true that methane is more potent molecule for molecule. But there's far less of it in the atmosphere, so the total effect is smaller. The atmospheric lifetime of methane (about 10 years) is a lot shorter than that of CO2 (hundreds to thousands of years), so when methane emissions are reduced the concentration in the atmosphere soon falls, whereas CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere over long periods. For details see the greenhouse gas and global warming potential articles. See also: Clathrate gun hypothesis and Arctic methane release Q8: How can you say there's a consensus when lists of "skeptical scientists" have been compiled? A8: Consensus is not the same as unanimity, the latter of which is impractical for large groups. Over 99% of publishing climate scientists agree on anthropogenic climate change. This is an extremely high percentage well past any reasonable threshold for consensus. Any list of "skeptical scientists" would be dwarfed by a comparably compiled list of scientists accepting anthropogenic climate change. Q9: Did climate change end in 1998? A9: One of the strongest El Niño events in the instrumental record occurred during late 1997 through 1998, causing a spike in global temperature for 1998. Through the mid-late 2000s this abnormally warm year could be chosen as the starting point for comparisons with later years in order to produce a cooling trend; choosing any other year in the 20th century produced a warming trend. This no longer holds since the mean global temperatures in 2005, 2010, 2014, 2015 and 2016 have all been warmer than 1998. More importantly, scientists do not define a "trend" by looking at the difference between two given years. Instead they use methods such as linear regression that take into account all the values in a series of data. The World Meteorological Organisation specifies 30 years as the standard averaging period for climate statistics so that year-to-year fluctuations are averaged out; thus, 10 years isn't long enough to detect a climate trend. Q10: Wasn't Greenland much warmer during the period of Norse settlement? A10: Some people assume this because of the island's name. In fact the Saga of Erik the Red tells us Erik named the new colony Greenland because "men will desire much the more to go there if the land has a good name." Advertising hype was alive and well in 985 AD. While much of Greenland was and remains under a large ice sheet, the areas of Greenland that were settled by the Norse were coastal areas with fjords that, to this day, remain quite green. You can see the following images for reference: A map of the Eastern Settlement A satellite image of that area today A map of the Western Settlement A satellite image of that area today A zoom in on the general area where the Brattahlíð (Erik the Red's farm) and Garðar farms were located Q11: Are the IPCC reports prepared by biased UN scientists? A11: The IPCC reports are not produced by "UN scientists". The IPCC does not employ the scientists who generate the reports, and it has no control over them. The scientists are internationally recognized experts, most with a long history of successful research in the field. They are employed by various organizations including scientific research institutes, agencies like NASA and NOAA, and universities. They receive no extra pay for their participation in the IPCC process, which is considered a normal part of their academic duties. Q12: Hasn't global sea ice increased over the last 30 years? A12: Measurements show that it has not. Claims that global sea ice amounts have stayed the same or increased are a result of cherry picking two data points to compare, while ignoring the real (strongly statistically significant) downward trend in measurements of global sea ice amounts. Arctic sea ice cover is declining strongly; Antarctic sea ice cover has had some much smaller increases, though it may or may not be thinning, and the Southern Ocean is warming. The net global ice-cover trend is clearly downwards. See also: Arctic sea ice decline See also: Antarctic sea ice § Recent trends and climate change Q13: Weren't scientists telling us in the 1970s that the Earth was cooling instead of warming? A13: They weren't – see the article on global cooling. An article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society has reviewed the scientific literature at that time and found that even during the 1970s the prevailing scientific concern was over warming. The common misperception that cooling was the main concern during the 1970s arose from a few studies that were sensationalized in the popular press, such as a short nine-paragraph article that appeared in Newsweek in 1975. (Newsweek eventually apologized for having misrepresented the state of the science in the 1970s.) The author of that article has repudiated the idea that it should be used to deny global warming. Q14: Doesn't water vapour cause 98% of the greenhouse effect? A14: Water vapour is indeed a major greenhouse gas, contributing about 36% to 70% (not 98%) of the total greenhouse effect. But water vapour has a very short atmospheric lifetime (about 10 days), compared with decades to centuries for greenhouse gases like CO2 or nitrous oxide. As a result it is very nearly in a dynamic equilibrium in the atmosphere, which globally maintains a nearly constant relative humidity. In simpler terms, any excess water vapour is removed by rainfall, and any deficit of water vapour is replenished by evaporation from the Earth's surface, which literally has oceans of water. Thus water vapour cannot act as a driver of climate change. Rising temperatures caused by the long-lived greenhouse gases will however allow the atmosphere to hold more vapour. This will lead to an increase in the absolute amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. Since water vapour is itself a greenhouse gas, this is an example of a positive feedback. Thus, whereas water vapour is not a driver of climate change, it amplifies existing trends. See also: Greenhouse gas and Greenhouse effect Q15: Is the fact that other solar system bodies are warming evidence for a common cause (i.e. the sun)? A15: While some solar system bodies show evidence of local or global climate change, there is no evidence for a common cause of warming. A 2007 National Geographic article described the views of Khabibullo Abdusamatov, who claims that the sun is responsible for global warming on both Earth and Mars. Abdussamatov's views have no support in the scientific community, as the second page of the National Geographic article makes clear: "'His views are completely at odds with the mainstream scientific opinion,' said Colin Wilson, a planetary physicist at England's Oxford University. Amato Evan, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, added that 'the idea just isn't supported by the theory or by the observations.'" There is no reliable source claiming that Jupiter is warming. However, observations of the Red Spot Jr. storm suggest Jupiter could be in a period of global climate change. This is hypothesized to be part of an approximately 70 year global climate cycle, characterized by the relatively rapid forming and subsequent slow erosion and merging of cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices that help transfer heat between Jupiter's poles and equator. The cycle works like this: As the vortices erode, heat exchange is reduced; this makes the poles cool down and the equatorial region heat up; the resulting temperature difference destabilizes the atmosphere, leading to the creation of new vortices. Pluto has an extremely elliptical orbit with a period of about 248 years. Data are sparse, but two data points from 1988 and 2002 indirectly suggest that Pluto warmed between those two dates. Pluto's temperature is heavily influenced by its elliptical orbit – it was closest to the sun in 1989 and has slowly receded since. Because of thermal inertia, it is expected to warm for a while after it passes perihelion (similar to how a sunny day's warmest temperatures happen during the afternoon instead of right at noon). No other mechanism has so far been seriously suggested. Here is a reasonable summary, and this paper discusses how the thermal inertia is provided by sublimation and evaporation of parts of Pluto's atmosphere. A more popular account is here and in Misplaced Pages's own article. See also: Climate of Mars and Extraterrestrial atmosphere Q16: Do scientists support climate change just to get more money? A16: No, Scientists participate in international organizations like the IPCC as part of their normal academic duties. They do not receive any extra compensation beyond possibly for direct expenses. Scientific grants do not usually award any money to a scientist personally, only towards the cost of his or her scientific work. There is not a shortage of useful things that scientists could study if they were not studying global warming. Understanding our climate system better brings benefits independent of global warming. For instance, more accurate weather predictions save a lot of money (on the order of billions of dollars a year), and everyone from insurance agents to farmers wants climate data. Scientists could get paid to study climate even if global warming did not exist. Q17: Doesn't the climate vary even without human activity? A17: It does, but the fact that natural variation occurs does not mean that human-induced change cannot also occur. Climate scientists have extensively studied natural causes of climate change (such as orbital changes, volcanism, and solar variation) and have ruled them out as an explanation for the current temperature increase. Human activity is the cause at the 95 to 99 percent confidence level (see the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report for details). The high level of certainty in this is important to keep in mind to spot mention of natural variation functioning as a distraction. Q18: Should we include the view that climate change will lead to planetary doom or catastrophe? A18: This page is about the science of climate change. It doesn't talk about planetary doom or catastrophe. For a technical explanation, see catastrophic climate change, and for paleoclimatic examples see PETM and great dying. Q19: Is an increase in global temperature of, say, 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) important? A19: Though it may not sound like much, a global temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) is huge in climate terms. For example, the sea level rise it would produce would flood coastal cities around the world, which include most large cities. Earth's climate has varied significantly over geological ages. The question of an "optimal temperature" makes no sense without a clear optimality criterion. Over geological time spans, ecosystems adapt to climate variations. But global climate variations during the development of human civilization (i.e. the past 12,000 years) have been remarkably small. Human civilization is highly adapted to the current stable climate. Agricultural production depends on the proper combination of soil, climate, methods, and seeds. Most large cities are located on the coast, and any significant change in sea level would strongly affect them. Migration of humans and ecosystems is limited by political borders and existing land use. In short, the main problem is not the higher absolute temperature but the massive and unprecedentedly fast change in climate and the related effects on human societies. The IPCC AR6 WG2 report has a detailed discussion of the effects of rapid climate change. Q20: Why are certain proposals to change the article discarded, deleted, or ignored? Who is/was Scibaby? A20: Scibaby is/was a long term abusive sock-master (or coordinated group of sock masters) who has created 1,027 confirmed sock puppets, another 167 suspected socks, and probably many untagged or unrecognized ones. This page lists some recent creations. His modus operandi has changed over time, but includes proposing reasonably worded additions on the talk page that only on close examination turn out to be irrelevant, misinterpreted, or give undue weight to certain aspects. Scibaby is banned, and Scibaby socks are blocked as soon as they are identified. Some editors silently revert his additions, per WP:DENY, while others still assume good faith even for likely socks and engage them. Q21: What about this really interesting recent peer-reviewed paper I read or read about, that says...? A21: There are hundreds of peer-reviewed papers published every month in respected scientific journals such as Geophysical Research Letters, the Journal of Climate, and others. We can't include all of them, but the article does include references to individual papers where there is consensus that they best represent the state of the relevant science. This is in accordance with the "due weight" principle (WP:WEIGHT) of the Neutral point of view policy and the "Misplaced Pages is not an indiscriminate collection of information" principle (WP:IINFO) of the What Misplaced Pages is not policy. Q22: Why does the article define "climate change" as a recent phenomenon? Hasn't the planet warmed and cooled before? A22: Yes, the planet has warmed and cooled before. However, the term "climate change" without further qualification is widely understood to refer to the recent episode and often explicitly connected with the greenhouse effect. Per WP:COMMONNAME, we use the term in this most common meaning. The article Climate variability and change deals with the more general concept. Q23: Did the CERN CLOUD experiment prove that climate change is caused not by human activity but by cosmic rays? A23: No. For cosmic rays to be causing global warming, all of the following would have to be true, whereas only the italicized one was tested in the 2011 experiment: Solar magnetic field must be getting stronger The number of cosmic rays reaching Earth must be dropping Cosmic rays must successfully seed clouds, which requires: Cosmic rays must trigger aerosol (liquid droplet) formation, These newly-formed aerosols must grow sufficiently through condensation to form cloud-condensation nuclei (CCN), The CCN must lead to increased cloud formation, and Cloud cover on Earth must be declining. Perhaps the study's lead author, Jasper Kirkby, put it best: "...it actually says nothing about a possible cosmic-ray effect on clouds and climate, but it's a very important first step." Q24: I read that something can't fix climate change. Is this true? A24: Yes, this is true for all plausible single things including: "electric cars", "planting trees", "low-carbon technology", "renewable energy", "Australia", "capitalism", "the doom & gloom approach", "a Ph.D. in thermodynamics". Note that it is problematic to use the word "fix" regarding climate change, as returning the climate to its pre-industrial state currently appears to be feasible only over a timeframe of thousands of years. Current efforts are instead aimed at mitigating (meaning limiting) climate change. Mitigation is strived for through the combination of many different things. See Climate change mitigation for details. References ^ Powell, James (20 November 2019). "Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming". Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society. 37 (4): 183–184. doi:10.1177/0270467619886266. S2CID 213454806. Retrieved 15 November 2020. ^ "Commission for Climatology Frequently Asked Questions". World Meteorological Organization. Archived from the original on 5 May 2020. Retrieved 14 July 2020. Harris, Tom. "Scientists who work in the fields liberal arts graduate Al Gore wanders through contradict his theories about man-induced climate change". National Post. Archived from the original on 30 August 2011. Retrieved 11 January 2009 – via Solid Waste & Recycling. {{cite web}}: |archive-date= / |archive-url= timestamp mismatch; 4 February 2012 suggested (help) Arriola, Benj. "5 Good Arguments Why GlobalWarming is NOT due to Man-made Carbon Dioxide". Global Warming Awareness Blog. Retrieved 11 January 2009. Ahlbeck, Jarl. "Increase of the Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration due to Ocean Warming". Retrieved 11 January 2009. Kirby, Simon (11 April 2007). "Top scientist debunks global warming". Herald Sun. Retrieved 11 January 2009. Brahic, Catherine (16 May 2007). "Climate myths: Human CO2 emissions are too tiny to matter". New Scientist. Retrieved 11 January 2009. "More Notes on Global Warming". Physics Today. May 2005. Retrieved 10 September 2007. Battle, M.; et al. (2000). "Global Carbon Sinks and Their Variability Inferred from Atmospheric O2 and d13C". Science. 287 (5462): 2467–2470. doi:10.1126/science.287.5462.2467. The Royal Society (2005). "Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide". Retrieved 9 May 2012. "Met Office: Climate averages". Met Office. Archived from the original on 24 February 2009. Retrieved 23 January 2009. Climate Central (18 January 2017). "2016 Was the Hottest Year on Record". Climate Central. Retrieved 1 February 2017. The Saga of Erik the Red, 1880, English translation by J. Sephton, from the original Eiríks saga rauða. "Cold Hard Facts". Tamino. 8 January 2009. Retrieved 21 January 2009. Peterson, T. C.; et al. (2008). "The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 89 (9): 1325. Bibcode:2008BAMS...89.1325P. doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1. Gwynne, Peter (28 April 1975). "The Cooling World". Newsweek. p. 64. Verger, Rob (23 May 2014). "Newsweek Rewind: Debunking Global Cooling". Newsweek. Gwynne, Peter (21 May 2014). "My 1975 'Cooling World' Story Doesn't Make Today's Climate Scientists Wrong". insidescience.org. Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008. Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says (page 2)". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008. Marcus, Philip; Shetty, Sushil; Asay-Davis, Xylar (November 2006). Velocities and Temperatures of Jupiter's Great Red Spot and the New Red Oval and Implications for Global Climate Change. American Physical Society. Retrieved 9 May 2007. Goudarzi, Sara (4 May 2006). "New Storm on Jupiter Hints at Climate Change". Space.com. Retrieved 9 May 2007. Philip, Marcus S. (22 April 2004). "Prediction of a global climate change on Jupiter" (PDF). Nature. 428 (6985): 828–831. Retrieved 9 May 2007. Yang, Sarah (21 April 2004). "Researcher predicts global climate change on Jupiter as giant planet's spots disappear". University of California, Berkeley. Retrieved 9 May 2007. Elliot, J. L.; et al. (10 July 2003). "The recent expansion of Pluto's atmosphere". Nature (424): 165–168. doi:10.1038/nature01762.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) Foerster, Jim. "What's The Difference Between Private Weather Companies And The National Weather Service?". Forbes. Eilts, Mike (27 November 2018). "The Role of Weather—and Weather Forecasting—in Agriculture". DTN. "What do the CERN experiments tell us about global warming?". Skeptical Science. 2 September 2011. Brumfiel, Geoff (23 August 2011). "Cloud Formation May Be Linked to Cosmic Rays". Scientific American.

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Global Warming Graphs

Should we really have this many Hockey-stick graphs on the page? Skeptics might catch on to our plan to skew the data based on old errors.--EchoRevamped (talk) 06:32, 25 September 2009 (UTC)

Mojib Latif, member of IPCC, Earth is cooling

This German scientific advise about the next cooling phase of the climate in the world, based on the North Atlantic Oscillation

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17742-worlds-climate-could-cool-first-warm-later.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-news

Breaking with climate-change orthodoxy, he said NAO cycles were probably responsible for some of the strong global warming seen in the past three decades. "But how much? The jury is still out," he told the conference. The NAO is now moving into a colder phase.

Latif said NAO cycles also explained the recent recovery of the Sahel region of Africa from the droughts of the 1970s and 1980s. James Murphy, head of climate prediction at the Met Office, agreed and linked the NAO to Indian monsoons, Atlantic hurricanes and sea ice in the Arctic. "The oceans are key to decadal natural variability," he said.''

--Bentaguayre (talk) 18:12, 7 September 2009 (UTC)

Vair exciting. I'm missing the bit about cooling that you put in your headline, though William M. Connolley (talk) 18:20, 7 September 2009 (UTC)

Doesn't the cooling, or slowing, of the NAO simply mean less heat transfer from the equator to the North Atlantic, and isn't that a concept that's been around for a number of years?--CurtisSwain (talk) 19:28, 7 September 2009 (UTC)

Assuming NS hasn't totally garbled this, then the NAO stuff leads to a global change in temperature, which would presumably involve some intereaction with the ocean. But the idea that there is natural variability on top of the long-term warming trend is nothing new William M. Connolley (talk) 19:47, 7 September 2009 (UTC)

The guy two doors down the hall went to the Geneva conference. I haven't spoken to him yet (it's a holiday here in the Land of the Free) but it will be interesting to compare his impressions with the NS report. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 20:25, 7 September 2009 (UTC)

Hello William, in the same article

Latif predicted that in the next few years a natural cooling trend would dominate over warming caused by humans. The cooling would be down to cyclical changes to ocean currents and temperatures in the North Atlantic, a feature known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

Yes guys, this has been pointed in the past. The question is, Latif, a man of the IPCC, now agree: 1. The warming has been caused too by natural proccess, 2. The natural forces are stronger than human influence, and tend to cool the planet in spite of the human activity.

This point of view is certainly new in a IPCC's man, and certainly can be a powerful hit to the hypothesis of a global warming based mostly in the human activity.

--Bentaguayre (talk) 22:56, 7 September 2009 (UTC)

You're misinterpreting the source. He's not saying that humans don't have influence or that their influence is unimportant; he's saying that short-term natural changes may temporarily cool the planet in spite of human influence. There's a huge difference. — DroEsperanto (talk) 00:12, 8 September 2009 (UTC)

Bentaguayre did not misinterpret Latif nor did he say that 'humans don't have influence or that their influence is unimportant'. In your apparent over-eagerness to defend the AGW position you have misinterpreted Bentaguayre.Dikstr (talk) 16:24, 8 September 2009 (UTC)

Actually what he says is clearly that "the jury is still out" on the relative weights of the different inputs. Arker (talk) 02:21, 8 September 2009 (UTC)

The main points of Latif talk about two things:

1. Warming phase: "the jury is still out", that mean he agree about more influences in the warming than the human ones, obviously he show doubts about the predominance of human activity in the proccess. 2. Cooling phase: yes, with your words "short-term natural changes may temporarily cool the planet in spite of human influence."

--Bentaguayre (talk) 08:48, 8 September 2009 (UTC)

You've now added the bit about cooling. Well done. It doesn't matter though, since NS isn't much use as a source. No, I don't trust it to quote anyone accurately (cue usual complaints). FWIW, this (I think) is a reference to the "recent" (about 6 months ago) study in which AWI ran a poor model and got poor answers; can't find the ref - anyone remember? William M. Connolley (talk) 16:52, 8 September 2009 (UTC)

(e/c)Sorry - but no. Short term climate variations can and will at times overwhelm long term changes, thats basic, the immediately known phenomena are El Niño/La Niña's. This doesn't in any way or form influence whether or not anthropogenic changes are dominant or not. And Latif agrees completely on this. Here's a nice german interview with Latif on the same study. . To state that Latif "how doubts about the predominance of human activity" is wrong plain and simple. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 16:56, 8 September 2009 (UTC)

Nice quote from Latif: „Die globale Temperatur wird trotz der kurzen Atempause bis 2100 deutlich höher sein als zu Beginn des letzten Jahrhunderts“ (trans: Global temperatures will, despite a short breather, by 2100 be significantly higher than the beginning of the last century). --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 17:02, 8 September 2009 (UTC)

Found it, thanks to a secret admirer. This is the Keenlyside pap. , , . They wimped out, of course. Maybe some of our local septics would care to step up to the plate? William M. Connolley (talk) 20:45, 8 September 2009 (UTC)

• in the German lemmata, any characterisation of Latif as Mainstream is now already reverted as NPOV ;) Doubts about the predominance of human activity in the prediction and in the past 30y years are clearly expressed by Latifs geneva speech. Btw: I found it quite interesting that there might be other reasons for changes in local oscillation (somewhat has to start them, right?)
• Vieira, L. E. A., and L. A. da Silva (2006), Geomagnetic modulation of clouds effects in the Southern Hemisphere Magnetic Anomaly through lower atmosphere cosmic ray effects, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L14802, doi:10.1029/2006GL026389. Zhang, M., and * H. Song (2006), Evidence of deceleration of atmospheric vertical overturning circulation over the tropical Pacific, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L12701, 18
• Ken Carslaw Atmospheric physics: Cosmic rays, clouds and climate Nature 460, 332-333 (16 July 2009) | doi:10.1038/460332a; Published online 15 July 2009 --Polentario (talk) 20:11, 9 September 2009 (UTC)

Oh I loved this comment: '"In many ways we know more about what will happen in the 2050s than next year," said Vicky Pope from the UK Met Office.' This clearly shows that they are still using schoolboy statistics and have no idea that long term noise will be larger in scale than short term variations. 79.79.246.21 (talk) 23:08, 9 September 2009 (UTC)

"In candid mood, climate scientists avoided blaming nature for their faltering predictions, however. "Model biases are also still a serious problem. We have a long way to go to get them right. They are hurting our forecasts," said Tim Stockdale of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, UK." - does that mean they have finally realised that people like the Met Office might say they can predict the climate but 100% of those predictions have been high. That's about as probable as tossing a coin heads all the time! 79.79.246.21 (talk) 23:12, 9 September 2009 (UTC)

"In many ways we know more about what will happen in the 2050s than next year," sounds fairly standard stuff. I'd ask you why you object to it but I know you won't ahve a reply and this will just degenerate into the usual chit-chat William M. Connolley (talk) 17:12, 11 September 2009 (UTC)

Latif has already published his point several times but not with the big noise around it. http://www.ifm-geomar.de/index.php?id=1183&L=1#11038, interview wise he was always a big contender of mainstream http://www.sonnenseite.com/Interviews,Mojib+Latif-+Climate+change+has+to+have+top+political+priority,74,a7484.html (the interview is on Franz Alts web page, a christian conservative solar industry lobbyist and was printed in Enercons customer journal, Germanys leading producer of wind energy plants, honni soit qui mal y pense). Basically, Latif is practically very much on Pielkes side concerning the importance of local risk studies (compare the Kiel model) but never before came so clearly that sceptics might be right for the next decades. BR --Polentario (talk) 18:42, 11 September 2009 (UTC)

Latif is completely mainstream on the standard climatology regarding global warming, which you will easily find out if you read any of his books on the subject. That he has a distinctive stand on the NAO and temperature predictions over the next 10 years is something else. Nils Simon (talk) 15:30, 25 September 2009 (UTC)

CO2 is not the only cause of climate change

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/cif-green/2009/sep/11/co2-other-cause-climate-change

I've started a new section, because the previous one had got tied up with the unwikipedia issue of whether a specific scientist was a reputable source rather than whether reports produced by around a dozen newspapers constituted sufficient reason to include this widely reported news story in the article. Now bearing in mind that the prime requirement of wikipedia is to inform the reader in a neutral way of the position on this subject and it is specifically NOT A SCIENTIFIC JOURNAL and being peer reviewed or even liked by fellow professionals is not a criteria for wikipedia, it does seem from the widespread reporting that this prediction of cooling requires to be included alongside the fact that the world is currently cooling.

81.170.1.80 (talk) 16:44, 11 September 2009 (UTC)

Misplaced Pages also requires that information come from reliable sources, and in terms of science, research published in peer-reviewed journals with many citations is the most reliable source. News tends to cover science rather poorly and is subject to a man bites dog bias; having a story that says "Scientists maintain global warming consensus" isn't newsworthy, although "Lindzen claims earth is actually cooling" does. Although I don't see what your point is regarding the article you linked, because that information is already in the article ("The major greenhouse gases are water vapor, which causes about 36–70 percent of the greenhouse effect; carbon dioxide (CO2), which causes 9–26 percent; methane (CH4), which causes 4–9 percent; and ozone (O3), which causes 3–7 percent.) — DroEsperanto (talk) 17:45, 11 September 2009 (UTC)

Oh OK, that is easy: no. Needs to be in decent journal. If it isn't, its not science William M. Connolley (talk) 17:10, 11 September 2009 (UTC)

See upstairs. BR --Polentario (talk) 18:56, 11 September 2009 (UTC)

Aside from simply being an opinion piece, the Guardian article says nothing about global cooling. It's main point is that nitrogen compounds, tropospheric ozone, and black carbon contribute to global warming. But, those contributions are already covered in this article, so it's not even offering anything new.--CurtisSwain (talk) 19:17, 11 September 2009 (UTC)

The main point is about nitrogen compounds, tropospheric ozone, and black carbon contribute to global warming contributing nearly 50% of global warming. Suppose its true, statements like The .. IPCC concludes that increasing greenhouse gas concentrations resulting from human activity .. caused most of the observed temperature increase since the middle of the 20th century. The IPCC also concludes that variations in natural phenomena such as solar radiation and volcanoes produced most of the warming from pre-industrial times to 1950 and had a small cooling effect afterwards have to be mollified, to say it at least. So far no mentioning of Latifs oceanic currents btw. I assume the article writes only about anthropogenic warming (which again conflicts with the supposed IPCC view here) and doesnt take into accound that various human contributions provide a cooling effect. -Polentario (talk) 17:43, 13 September 2009 (UTC)

Mollified? Are they angry? Latifs stuff isn't mentionned because it is tosh and has been ripped to shreds William M. Connolley (talk) 17:54, 13 September 2009 (UTC)

You havent answered to the point about the guardian, I assume its right then. Interesting, probably Monbiot is in vacation.

Is Latif still allowed to talk or travel to the UK? Williams gross story about tosh and Latif being tarred and feathered is proably the normal Realclimate procedure, however now expanded on former consenti. On thios side of the channel he's still alive, allowed to research and not being treated as an outlaw at all. -Polentario (talk) 18:13, 13 September 2009 (UTC)

You can assume whatever you wish, but in order to maintain the integrity of this article we have to rely on legitimate science. We can't just take unsubstantiated assertions made in opinion pieces and "suppose it's true."--CurtisSwain (talk) 20:12, 13 September 2009 (UTC)

Latifs science stuff being tosh and ripped to shreds is a rather strong opinion. Its mainly about politics, not science (to quote Pielke sr and jr). Lets see how strong the political consens will be in Stockholm. --Polentario (talk) 21:10, 13 September 2009 (UTC)

Rainfall trends?

Due to higher average temperatures, there is more evaporation from the oceans and in a dynamical equilibrium situation, there must be more rainfall. So, I was wondering if the total of the global rainfall records is a reliable indictator of global warming? Count Iblis (talk) 18:52, 11 September 2009 (UTC)

IPCC report contributors challenging the notion of consensus on global warming

Explanation of Tony Sidaway's revert of an edit by Grace Xu

I have reverted an edit in which Grace Xu removed the following two paragraphs:

The Tibetan Plateau contains the world's third-largest store of ice. Qin Dahe, the former head of the China Meteorological Administration, said that the recent fast pace of melting and warmer temperatures will be good for agriculture and tourism in the short term; but issued a strong warning:

"Temperatures are rising four times faster than elsewhere in China, and the Tibetan glaciers are retreating at a higher speed than in any other part of the world." "In the short term, this will cause lakes to expand and bring floods and mudflows." "In the long run, the glaciers are vital lifelines for Asian rivers, including the Indus and the Ganges. Once they vanish, water supplies in those regions will be in peril."Global warming benefits to Tibet: Chinese official. Reported 18/Aug/2009.

The reason given for removal seems odd. --TS 14:17, 14 September 2009 (UTC)

The reason seems to have been WP:POINT. I agree with your reinsertion.. While Qin may be the one we quote for this information, he/she is certainly not the only one who is stating this, and it is of course a summary from Effects of global warming. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 14:28, 14 September 2009 (UTC)

I also agree: I see Grace's point about individuals, but it is clearly not just that individual (after Google and Google Scholar searches) so I will be adding more sources to that section. It might also be better to paraphrase the quote so we can stick all the appropriate refs by the material that they support and to avoid giving undue weight to one individual. Awickert (talk) 15:58, 14 September 2009 (UTC)

I like the removal. This article is already too long, and this seems a little too detailed for an overview article. It's okay to split out sub-topics per WP:SUMMARY. -Atmoz (talk) 17:24, 14 September 2009 (UTC)

Public growing more skeptical of global warming claims

On the global warming page, there is a mention of Gallup Poll results. There is a current Gallup Poll indicating "The number of Americans who say the media have exaggerated global warming jumped to a record 41 percent in 2009." What is the best way to integrate these results into the article?

The article is here....http://www.lvrj.com/news/52828402.html Chaucer Bolays (talk) 04:08, 19 September 2009 (UTC)

The reference to a Gallup poll is to illustrate differing awareness of global warming across the world. Attitudes will vary in any one country, and historically American public attitudes have been ambivalent to say the least. There is probably an article into which US opinion on global warming can be integrated. --TS 04:18, 19 September 2009 (UTC)

Recent results from NASA's Aqua satellite - Dr Roy Spencer

I've moved this discussion to Talk:Climate_sensitivity. It was duplicated there, and clearly belongs there William M. Connolley (talk) 21:47, 19 September 2009 (UTC)

Now removed by the originator of the discussion in favour of a new discussion there William M. Connolley (talk) 10:06, 21 September 2009 (UTC)

Lovelock's new book

I understand that James Lovelock's new book The Vanishing Face of Gaia states that climate change is irreversible and that humans are facing an unavoidable catastrophe that will kill millions, if not billions.(AFP-Jiji, "Scientific Community prays that Lovelock is wrong about warming", Japan Times, Sep 21, 2009, p. 7.) He is a notable scientist in the climate change topic, and his opinion is different from the IPCC's stance that global warming is reversible if action is taken to reduce greenhouse gasses. Should Lovelock's opinion be noted in this or any of the other warming articles? Cla68 (talk) 23:05, 20 September 2009 (UTC)

Are you sure that the IPCC's view is that global warming is reversible by reducing greenhouse gases? Citation of a source to that effect would be helpful. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 23:17, 20 September 2009 (UTC)

Here's what the article says:

I assume Pachauri is speaking on behalf of the IPCC with that statement, although I could be mistaken. Cla68 (talk) 23:43, 20 September 2009 (UTC)

Could you give a working link to the full story? I don't know whether Pachauri is formally speaking on behalf of the IPCC in this case, or what the phrase "things become irreversible" might mean. With no context it's hard to understand what's going on. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 00:01, 21 September 2009 (UTC)

The AFP article is here - the context is that Lovelock thinks that abrupt climate change is inevitable. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 00:10, 21 September 2009 (UTC)

I think you will find that Lovelock's position is a minority one (see fringe), as the article also states, and that you are inflating his (Lovelock's) importance... as far as i can tell every time Lovelock has been raised, that has been the view. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 00:10, 21 September 2009 (UTC)

If I understand right you are saying that his opinion is not notable enough to be included? Cla68 (talk) 00:13, 21 September 2009 (UTC)

Global warming controversy would be a better place for this. You could add Lovelock's opinion, the response from Pachauri (whatever it means), and so on. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 00:23, 21 September 2009 (UTC)

I think you're probably right. Cla68 (talk) 01:34, 21 September 2009 (UTC)

Talk Topic: update article title to "Global warming change", thus combining "Global warming" and "Climate Change"

Talk Topic: update article title to "Global warming change", thus combining "Global warming" and bigger picture "Climate Change"

Hmm...I'm not sure what the advantage would be of doing that. Could you please explain why the article title should be changed, and how your proposal would be an improvement?--CurtisSwain (talk) 07:49, 22 September 2009 (UTC)

The first sentence does not seem intellectually honest. I have not found a reliable reference to indicate that "global warming" has a defining characteristic of "mid 20th century". This would lead one to believe that "global warming" has not happened previously during the history of earth. There are countless references to indicate that it is not just "mid 20th century".

I have found a reliable source for the definition of "global warming". http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/global+warming 1. "an increase in the earth's average atmospheric temperature that causes corresponding changes in climate and that may result from the greenhouse effect." 2. "An increase in the average temperature of the earth's atmosphere, especially a sustained increase sufficient to cause climatic change."

Perhaps changing the title to something like "Recent Global Warming" or "Rapid Global Warming" or remove the time scope of the first sentence would provide a more intellectually honest statement.

I don't understand "intellectually honest"; "Global Warming" in the public mind and the vast, vast majority of discussions is related to recent warming. On Wiki we usually try to use the most common term. Global warming has indeed gone on in the past, but other articles cover past warming, which is why there is the "For ..." at the surface. I don't think that there is a way to use the common usage of "global warming" for what people will be looking for, while also including all warming episodes. Awickert (talk) 17:12, 22 September 2009 (UTC)

Thank you for response. One definition of "intellectually honest" is "honesty in performing intellectual activities like thought or communication". I guess I am looking for a more accurate and more permanance than recent discussions, most common terms, common usage, catering to what people will be looking for and so on. Perhaps I should search for a more scientific approach dealing with accuracy rather than Misplaced Pages since this resource seems to focus on recent conversations, common jargon, etc.

"Combining" when an article is this long just seems the wrong way to go. As for your comments on accuracy I suggest you read around the meaning of language to help your perspective to clear. --BozMo talk 11:19, 23 September 2009 (UTC)

Please read WP:NEO. The term "global warming change" isn't used by anyone, therefore it can't be an article title here. Oren0 (talk) 17:28, 23 September 2009 (UTC)

This is why this needs to be amended to say that Global Warming is a scientific THEORY. Right now the article presents Global Warming as scientific fact, which it is not. There's no discussion that Global Warming has come under intense scrutiny in the scientific community. It needs to be changed. jbird669 (talk) 18:37, 24 September 2009 (UTC)

jbird669, please read the FAQ. The Question 8 is addressing that issue. --McSly (talk) 20:16, 24 September 2009 (UTC)

jbird669, intense scrutiny may be found at History of climate change science and the resources provided in that article.--CurtisSwain (talk) 23:24, 24 September 2009 (UTC)

FAQ question 8 says That the temperature is rising is an "observation". However, that is not true. The temperature is actually the output of a proprietary and highly complex model. The FAQ does make it clear that the supposition that increasing CO2 causes global warming is a theory. In addition, the majority of the article is about the theory and not the "obervation". Q Science (talk) 06:29, 25 September 2009 (UTC)

Please take a look at where the OP is attempting to insert "theory", it may also be of use to consider why the OP thinks that theory should be inserted. (what is a scientific "fact"?) --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 06:36, 25 September 2009 (UTC)

The problem is that the phrase "Global Warming" (like most dictionary entries) has several very different definitions. The article itself uses several of these without any specific distinctions. In particular, many people want the term "anthropogenic" added when CO2 is the cause and a different phrase when simply discussing warming without attributing cause. Q Science (talk) 09:36, 25 September 2009 (UTC)

I suspect that this might help: WP:WTA#Theories_and_hypotheses --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 06:36, 25 September 2009 (UTC)

Theory, Law and Fact in Science. TLDR summary: facts are consistent observations; theories explain facts. A scientific theory is much stronger than a scientific fact. See also Evolution as theory and fact. -Atmoz (talk) 06:50, 25 September 2009 (UTC)

I enjoyed those, thanks. However, the Webster definition is a bit looser. (Actually, a lot.) Q Science (talk) 09:20, 25 September 2009 (UTC)

One should take into consideration an early statement of Pielke jr about the Real Climate Bllog, which applies as well to this article: The Controversy ist not so mucb about science, but about politics and political measures, to use only scientific sources and to leave out quality press repeats this error again. --Polentario (talk) 19:00, 8 October 2009 (UTC)

Met Office

• Met Office warns of catastrophic global warming in our lifetimes

Not sure if this is new or covers anything not already covered but it's a potential data point. --TS 16:22, 28 September 2009 (UTC)

Its in the Torygraph too. However, I'd like to see the underlying Met Office report rather than the newspapers spin on it. "could" be 4 oC by 2060 is nothing new (though very unlikely), since we already know there is a spread of possible outcomes William M. Connolley (talk) 16:34, 28 September 2009 (UTC)

Yes, specifically I was hoping the report in question was already in the public domain so we could determine its significance. --TS 17:20, 28 September 2009 (UTC)

is more useful. 4 oC by 2060 is clearly a worst-case based on A1F1 and weakened sinks and who knows what else. is the press release. Notably absent is any proper publication. We shouldn't touch this until it has been published William M. Connolley (talk) 20:51, 28 September 2009 (UTC)

Painting roofs white as geoengineering

There were not many good examples of geoengineering (the other "Responses to Global Warming" sections have more examples), so I have added this key example forwarded by Nobel Prize winning scientist and U.S. Department of Energy Secretary Steven Chu to "paint roofs white". Natra Yan (talk) 03:45, 1 October 2009 (UTC)

This will reduce the acidification of the oceans how? http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/oct/04/arctic-seas-turn-to-acid --Nigelj (talk) 17:38, 6 October 2009 (UTC)

It wont, at least not directly. In fact, since cold water can store more CO2, it will (slightly) increase acidity because it will slightly reduce temperatures compared to the default. But the greater effect, especially for buildings, is indirect. It will reduce the energy for air conditioning, since buildings will absorb less heat from direct sun exposure. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 17:50, 6 October 2009 (UTC)

Oh, I thought we were going to try to make up for the reflectivity lost due to melting ice-sheets by painting as much of the rest of the earth white as we could, while burning the other half of the earth's oil as quick we like. Compared to the huge reductions in CO2 emissions that we need worldwide to stay below 4 deg C, I think this will be about as minimal in effect, though. Consider the roof/not-roof ratios of buildings, the difference in reflectivity of old and dirty white paint to other materials, that a dark roof would absorb winter sun better and so reduce heating requirements for the other 6 months, that most of the world's population doesn't have air-con anyway etc. What about recommending loft insulation?! It reminds me a little of government advice to close all curtains and sit under the kitchen table to survive a nuclear attack. I think if we can just unplug all our mobile phone chargers, it'd be OK to keep driving everywhere and heating our pools for ever. See http://www.withouthotair.com/ --Nigelj (talk) 18:56, 6 October 2009 (UTC)

Yamal etc

Interested in Yamal / the latest McI / Hockey sticks? Then Talk:Hockey stick controversy#.22Hockey_Stick.22 now proven not to exist is where you should be William M. Connolley (talk) 21:27, 5 October 2009 (UTC)

How do we know it is caused by human activity?

I came to this article with one objective: What is the evidence that observed global warming is caused by humans? I have had a really difficult time trying to find the answer to that question from this article. I supposed one could say I should go read the sources that are referenced. But shouldn't this article contain at least a summary of the evidence that answers such a basic question? This is, after all, the main argument of the global warming nay-sayers: fluctuations in world temperature are normal and not man-caused. It seems to me that by evading this question in the article, we are actually giving support to the global warming nay-sayers. So where is a Misplaced Pages article that summarizes the evidence? Is it one of the articles referenced within this article? If so which one? I must say that this is difficult to figure out by reading the article. It makes one wonder if global warming really is caused by human activity. --Westwind273 (talk) 16:03, 6 October 2009 (UTC)

I notice you've found Attribution of recent climate change. Perhaps we should make it easier to find? William M. Connolley (talk) 16:29, 6 October 2009 (UTC)

I now see that "caused" in the first sentence links to Attribution of recent climate change - that seems good enough. No? William M. Connolley (talk) 20:03, 6 October 2009 (UTC)

Hmm...I don't know. It kind of looks like the link is to a article about what deforestation caused. I think it would be best to separate the two wikilinks like this:

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that most of the observed temperature increase is caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases resulting from human activity such as fossil fuel burning and deforestation.--CurtisSwain (talk) 22:42, 6 October 2009 (UTC)

Misplaced Pages:Articles for deletion/Global warming in Japan

Anyone interested in Misplaced Pages:Articles for deletion/Global warming in Japan? William M. Connolley (talk) 19:58, 6 October 2009 (UTC)

Note cyclical variations which lead to recent cooling trends

It is important to note up front the source of recent cooling trends. An excellent reliable source for this is: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/23/science/earth/23cool.htm?_r=1

I made a note of this in the introduction. This will help avoid confusion with the topic at hand, since the observed trends in the first figure indicate cooling. Abu Triale (talk) 05:12, 7 October 2009 (UTC)

Abu Triale's edit was reverted by an editor who did not, unfortunately, join the discussion here. Is the information contained in that NYTimes article contained in the article? Cla68 (talk) 05:20, 7 October 2009 (UTC)

I left a message on Abu's talk page. The New York Times article does not say what Abu claims it does. He does not seem to understand the difference between "The plateau in temperatures" (e.g, a flat line) and a cooling trend (e.g, a downward line) Raul654 (talk) 05:21, 7 October 2009 (UTC)

Unfortunately, threats were left at my page, and the above editor violated WP:AGF. I will go ahead and change the language to reflect the plateau effect (even though the real effect is cooling, per the data in the top figure). Abu Triale (talk) 05:25, 7 October 2009 (UTC)

Making edits that claim one thing and citing a source that says something entirely different makes it rather hard to assume good faith. Raul654 (talk) 05:29, 7 October 2009 (UTC)

I have updated the earlier edit, to reflect the halt in rising temperatures due to cyclical variations. It still seems very odd, however, since the overall 9 year trend is cooling. Abu Triale (talk) 05:35, 7 October 2009 (UTC)

If the trend is cooling over the past 9 years, I certainly don't see it and it can't be very strong. I see a cooling trend over the past 4 years, but of a small amplitude. What is this cooling trend you speak of? Awickert (talk) 06:11, 7 October 2009 (UTC)

It is difficult for me to tell due to the strange presentation of the data, but it seems to my eye as though the data point for 2009 is slightly lower than for the 2000 time frame, thus the overall (net) trend would be cooling. This is the trend I speak of. Abu Triale (talk) 06:33, 7 October 2009 (UTC)

Thou shalt not make trends of two points. :) 2 points define a line, but a trend is usually some kind of regression that uses all the data; from my eyeballing of the data points in question, it seems that any such regression would have a very weak slope for the time frame you have indicated, and almost certainly not outside of error of "no change in mean annual temperature with time". Awickert (talk) 06:47, 7 October 2009 (UTC)

Raul is right, Abu Triale, the NYTimes article states that, "global temperatures have been relatively stable for a decade and may even drop in the next few years." It doesn't say that cooling has been happening. If your edits match what the sources say, then there isn't a problem. Cla68 (talk) 06:34, 7 October 2009 (UTC)

Of course there is a problem... we still do not source science from popular media, and weight is still an issue.. especially on the main article. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 08:51, 7 October 2009 (UTC)

Boy (and ladies), this is a new spin on an old friend. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 07:13, 7 October 2009 (UTC)

Ok, but I think the NYTimes article should be mentioned in the text, which I've just done. Cla68 (talk) 07:22, 7 October 2009 (UTC)

I'd prefer to take it out again. It's really a non-information ("it seem, but is not"), and thus certainly not important enough for the lede. It's also very much dependent on the time of writing. Moreover, we have for a long time tried to only use high-quality scientific sources, not the popular press (not even it it is the NYT). --Stephan Schulz (talk) 07:29, 7 October 2009 (UTC)

It's not in the lede, it's in the section on temperature. The NYTimes article quotes a number of scientists and climate organizations. If the British Met Office finds that temperatures have generally been stable since 1999, that a fairly significant and relevant finding, in my opinion. Cla68 (talk) 07:46, 7 October 2009 (UTC)

• We do not source science to the NYTimes. Popular media (no matter if they quote scientists) get things wrong too often. And i'm sorry your personal opinion on what is significant is irrelevant (thats why we have WP:WEIGHT). --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 08:48, 7 October 2009 (UTC)
• Point taken about the lede, sorry, I misread that. Maybe we can find better sources. The MetOffice statement is here. They reference "recent research by Jeff Knight" - I think this press release is more apropos, and I think this is a preprint (although it seems to miss the references section). --Stephan Schulz (talk) 09:35, 7 October 2009 (UTC)

• We can add that source also. By the way, someone just reverted the information, so I've asked for a second opinion at the RS noticeboard. Cla68 (talk) 14:07, 7 October 2009 (UTC)

• I agree with Kim Dabelstein Petersen that we don't source science to newspapers. In particular, the edit that I reverted gives a misleading impression of the prevailing trend in global temperatures and indeed could almost have been carefully crafted in order to do just that. --TS 14:46, 7 October 2009 (UTC)

• Uninvolved editors at the RS Noticeboard appear to disagree with you. Cla68 (talk) 14:56, 7 October 2009 (UTC)

I don't think that is going to help. This article is (primarily) about the science and needs sources as such William M. Connolley (talk) 15:02, 7 October 2009 (UTC)

Again, uninvolved editors disagree with you. The RS noticeboard regulars are familiar with the use of reliable sources in all areas of the project. Is this article in a special category that I haven't heard of until now? Cla68 (talk) 15:06, 7 October 2009 (UTC)

There is something on WP policy that says that scientific sources are better, and we try to limit ourselves to those here because of the large amount of controversy on the issue. I bet there is some scientific source that talks about the same thing as the NY Times article though I haven't looked; the NY times article would be very appropriate for the Global warming controversy page IMO in that it highlights the "it's fake" vs. "it's natural cyclicity" argument that's been popping up in recent years. Awickert (talk) 15:37, 7 October 2009 (UTC)

Adding the second Met. Office press release and retaining the New York Times reference, I have reworded as follows:

The decade 1999-2009 marked what the Met Office called "very small global temperature rises" but this is in line with expectations of climate scientists during warming trends.

The NYT reference doesn't seem too much out of place in that context. --TS 16:47, 7 October 2009 (UTC)

Request for protection

I have asked for the article to be protected for now because of the apparently escalating edit war over recently added content.

Cla68 has said that some uninvolved parties say that New York Times is okay to use as a source. That's true as far as it goes; it would be adequate as a source if we didn't have better sources--and we have much, much better sources on the science. Although I tried to integrate the addition by reference to the scientific context, I don't think I did a particularly good job. nor could I have done because--and I regret that I persisted although I was conscious of this fact--the statement isn't really telling the whole story. What the Met Office calls "very small global temperature rises" are small in the context of the two preceding decades, and in particular the 1990s. What we have now is a large, persisting and growing temperature anomaly, and climate scientists attribute recent behavior to internal cyclical variation. We should perhaps cover that in the section in question, but not in the way I tried to do. It needs good scientific sources. --TS 00:21, 8 October 2009 (UTC)

I expect that the NYTimes article will produce additional commentary on the issue, because I would think that the recent findings that temperatures have only slightly increased over the last 10 years is rather significant. It troubles me that newspaper reports are being completely shut out from the this article. I personally have had a newspaper subscription and been an almost daily reader of various newspapers for about 15 years. I use newspapers often in the articles that I edit. WP policy does not make exceptions for the use of major newspapers from articles on any topic, except BLPs in some cases. If the WP community feels that newspapers should not be used in science articles, then they need to change the policy. As of right now, policy supports using this NYTimes report in this article. Cla68 (talk) 01:18, 8 October 2009 (UTC)

You can't make blanket statements like this. Per WP:V, The appropriateness of any source always depends on the context. It's nice that you read newspapers; indeed, more people should. But that's not relevant to the present discussion. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 01:24, 8 October 2009 (UTC)

It's an article about science. not about the opinions of people who read or write newspapers, no matter how long their subscriptions may be.

I'm at a loss to understand what you mean by "WP policy does not make exceptions for the use of major newspapers from articles on any topic, except BLPs in some cases." The inclusion of any information or any source in an article is at the discretion and subject to the consensus of the editors. Misplaced Pages does not, as you seem to imply, mandate the reporting of whatever the New York Times, the Guardian or Le Figaro might have to say on a matter on any given day. As of right now, and as ever, Misplaced Pages policy supports decision-making by consensus based on the neutral point of view and the use of the best available sources. --TS 01:25, 8 October 2009 (UTC)

Misplaced Pages:MEDRS#Popular press seems related. -Atmoz (talk) 01:32, 8 October 2009 (UTC)

This is an interesting discussion regarding the use of newspapers as reliable sources in science related articles. It seems this standard should apply doubly to blogs, which are not vetted or peer reviewed in any way. It seems therefore that references to Realclimate in various global warming articles will need to go to. CrenshawB (talk) 04:45, 8 October 2009 (UTC)

Certainly it would be wrong to use RealClimate as a sole source for a description of a scientific matter--if we had to do so it would tend to indicate that the subject matter was too obscure for Misplaced Pages. As it happens we source Gavin Schmidt on his RealClimate blog just once in this particular article, and it is a second source, the first source being an article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

It's not so much that the New York Times or any other newspaper is unacceptable, rather that the subject in question is covered better in other, more reliable sources and the way in which the information was presented is not very accurate. Rejecting this particular citation to the New York Times does not imply blanket rejection of all New York Times articles, nor does it imply that we have to ditch the blogs. --TS 04:58, 8 October 2009 (UTC)

I disagree slightly with Tony when he says "Rejecting this particular citation to the New York Times does not imply blanket rejection of all New York Times articles". I think it does imply blanket rejection of all news articles as sole sources, but the article under discussion is just as good as another may be as a secondary and probably more approachable source. Awickert (talk) 05:04, 8 October 2009 (UTC)

I don't think we really disagree. For instance if a newspaper comes up with some nonsense that misrepresents scientific opinion or makes it up out of whole cloth--and I know we can all give many examples of either--then it isn't going to go into this article. And I agree that a newspaper should never be the most significant source, for this and other reasons. --TS 06:19, 8 October 2009 (UTC)

(I realize that this doesn't solve the question of acceptable source material, but perhaps that needs a different forum than here? This might solve the immediate issue of edit warring.) Is it acceptable to sidestep this current argument re acceptability or not of newspaper articles and get the article unprotected by referencing the source article? To wit: ‘Do Global Temperature Trends Over the Last Decade Falsify Climate Predictions’ by J. Knight, J.J. Kenney, C. Folland, G. Harris, G.S. Jones, M. Palmer, D. Parker, A. Scaife, and P. Stott in a supplement to the August issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (PDF available at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2009/global_temperatures_09.pdf ) And also the more readable summary from the UK met office: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/policymakers/policy/slowdown.html Lissajous (talk) 12:09, 8 October 2009 (UTC)

I appreciate you doing the legwork to find this link, I think Mr. Schulz and TS also mentioned it above. The NYTimes article mentions more opinions than just the Met Office study, but if that's unacceptable to the regulars here, then I think this Met Office report will have to do. Cla68 (talk) 13:36, 8 October 2009 (UTC)

I think this is the reasonable answer to the edit conflict. It isn't that the NYT is unacceptable as a source for the global warming article, but if a better source is available on a topic it should be used instead, and there are very few issues where a newspaper would be a better source. The whole article is at a very high standard.Ignignot (talk) 15:17, 8 October 2009 (UTC)

And we still need to address the weight problem. This seems quite a bit more appropriate in Instrumental temperature record, where there is also room to expand on this... and if significant enough, it will be reflected here in the summary section of that article (via Temperature record). --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 15:29, 8 October 2009 (UTC)

The single sentence that was added helped the reader understand how the issue is reported, and being brief, it certainly did not give undue weight. Jonathunder (talk) 17:07, 8 October 2009 (UTC)

Compared to all the other important things that could be included, it certainly is a very minor issue, both in relevance and temporal interest (we're not the news you know). And to describe how this issue is "reported" is not within the topic of this article. That is something that is relevant on one of the many sub-articles. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 17:49, 8 October 2009 (UTC)

This is a very minor issue. Indeed scientifically it isn't clear that it is an issue at all. Kim is right; this is better off introduced into Itr (I know, its boring over there, not nearly so many people get to watch your exciting edits, but never mind) especially this page is (regrettably) locked William M. Connolley (talk) 18:06, 8 October 2009 (UTC)

I have asked for the article to be protected for now because of the apparently escalating edit war over recently added content. - just to note: I would prefer the article to be unprotected William M. Connolley (talk) 14:07, 8 October 2009 (UTC)

I've created an updated copy of the article with what I think (hope?) might be an acceptable change, incorporating the new references at User:Lissajous/Global_warming. I've also moved the para up one or two places to be adjacent to the discussion of temperature variation, and changed the wording to match the changed references (although I hope it captures the original intent). If any interested parties could check this out to make sure it isn't too far from some consensus version of the truth in a non Phillip_K_Dick way I'd appreciate it. (I saw the comment above on moving it to the temperature record section, and that seems fine to me too, but I've run out of time just now - if someone cares enough they're welcome to edit away). I'll also ask Kevin to remove the protection. Of course, he might just say wait a week. Lissajous (talk) 17:32, 8 October 2009 (UTC)

Thanks for the attempt. But sorry, I don't like the result. It sits awkwardly were it is now, obviously gives too much weight to a single paper, and skirts the issue. Can we go with a stronger, declarative sentence? "Global temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations that overlay long term trends and can temporarily mask them. This is believed to explain the relatively mild warming in the decade from 1999 to 2009."? --Stephan Schulz (talk) 18:00, 8 October 2009 (UTC)

Sure - feel free to make the edit (I've run out of cycles just for a while). Lissajous (talk) 18:51, 8 October 2009 (UTC)

Had more cycles free than I thought. I've updated to match with Stephan Schulz's suggestion. Is the current suggestion broadly acceptable? Any fundamental problems? Lissajous (talk) 19:42, 8 October 2009 (UTC)

So if I gather what you're proposing correctly, it's the addition of the following statement, using as references a paper published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society and a press release from the Met Office.

Global temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations that overlay long term trends and can temporarily mask them. This is believed to explain the relative stability in temperature from 1999 to 2009.

This seems okay to me if I understand you correctly. If there are no further objections I think we can probably unprotect. --TS 20:12, 8 October 2009 (UTC)

Looks reasonably good. I like the stability bit. But just to nitpick my own suggestion: "This is believed" is weasely. May I offer another simple statement: "The relative stability in temperature from 1999 to 2009 is consistent with such such an episode.", which also more closely follows the source. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 20:24, 8 October 2009 (UTC)

With the protect removed, I've copied over my cache, but it's slightly out of sync with the last few suggestions - will chase it now. Lissajous (talk) 20:41, 8 October 2009 (UTC)

Find a decent source for it first. I've removed it as science by press release. -Atmoz (talk) 21:07, 8 October 2009 (UTC)

Did you check both sources? One was published as a BAMS supplement, the other was the human-friendly press release. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 21:12, 8 October 2009 (UTC)

A BAMS supplement? What does it supplement? I can't find anything related in any recent BAMS article or pre-prints, but I'd be happy to be proved wrong. In any case, you should be citing the actual article and not the supplements. Press releases don't count for squat. I can't believe you're trying to defend using them as a source. -Atmoz (talk) 21:37, 8 October 2009 (UTC)

I've got a query in with the UK Met office to clarify the publication date - are you ok to let the article stand for 24 hours until they've had time to get back? (I don't want the war to start again ... but I undid your undo when I thought it was a simple misunderstanding, i.e. before I saw your frank response above). Lissajous (talk) 21:44, 8 October 2009 (UTC)

Unless you can find the article it actually supplements I will not be happy. However, I won't revert again (at least for the next 24hr on this article...) -Atmoz (talk) 21:50, 8 October 2009 (UTC)

I expect it will be at least 24 hrs to hear from the Met. In the interim, I suspect that it's a supplement to Peterson, T.C., and M.O. Baringer, 2009: State of the Climate in 2008. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, S1–S196. Lissajous (talk) 22:08, 8 October 2009 (UTC)

Ok - a bit more digging and ... it's pretty much as I cited in the article (pre-deletion) - it's part of the Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Metereological Society Vol 90, No. 8, August 2009 - "State of the Climate in 2008". If you want me to mail you the 60Mbyte PDF of the 200 page supplement (no, it's not your average advertising supplement to the local paper), tell me. Or you can contact the AMS and ask them for it. If that's sufficient, can you revert your deletion? Lissajous (talk) 22:38, 8 October 2009 (UTC)

I have access to BAMS, and... What a thoroughly useless document. They produce one of these things every year? Waste of paper. 270 coauthors. They should each only get to put it on their CV 1/n where n is the total number of citations this thing ever gets. (Rounds nicely to zero.) Looking at past editions: Citations for "State of the Climate" in 2007: 3 times, 2006: 3 times, 2005: 4 times, 2004: 11 times, 2003: 17 times, 2002: 6 times. Compared to IPCC 2007 cited already > 450 times. State of the Climate 2008 hasn't been cited yet (no surprise). This is still too new (anything after ~2007 is too new). Judging from past editions, these are low impact documents that are generally ignored, which is also what we should do. But if you want to add it, cite it correctly so those interested can find it. See page 4 for proper citation. -Atmoz (talk) 04:46, 9 October 2009 (UTC)

Done. FWIW, I share some of your concerns, but it was a means to break a deadlock on citing the NYT vs citing the underlying science. Either way, I'm done with it. —Preceding unsigned comment added by Lissajous (talk • contribs)

I propose, based on the development of the discussion herein, that we codify these findings in a new Misplaced Pages rule: WP:NNPAOBASFWPSA...."No Newspaper Articles Or Blogs As Sources For Misplaced Pages Science Articles." I will post this on this noticeboards, and see what develops. CrenshawB (talk) 03:56, 9 October 2009 (UTC)

In your posts you probably should link to the related discussions here and on the Reliable Sources noticeboard or else other Wikipedians aren't going to understand why someone would feel the need to make such a proposal. Cla68 (talk) 04:10, 9 October 2009 (UTC)

Discussion on cherry picking of data underpinning global warming should be here!

The following discussion is closed. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.

These issues are all covered in the FAQ

I can understand why certain editors would wish to hide away the recent revelations regarding the whole basis of exceptional global warming to a side article, but this article makes specific allegations about the failure of the whole climate "science" community to adequately peer review their papers and so calls into question not only papers regarding the hockey stick, but all papers reviewed using the same general process. Furthermore, how can this controversy be adequately covered when it has been hitherto stated that nothing gets into the article without being peer reviewed - when that very peer review process has been called into question. When it appears you can't trust the sources that we are told are the only reliable sources for material for this article, this creates a bit of a problem and to be honest I'd like to hear other editors ideas as to how to proceed. 85.210.112.144 (talk) 13:30, 7 October 2009 (UTC)

Opinion pieces are not reliable sources except for the opinion of their authors. I'll take the scientific peer review process over one guys opinion any time. If McK's comment becomes notable, take it to Hockey stick controversy. If it becomes notable for global warming in general, take it to Global warming controversy. According to McK, the peer review has been to lenient, and bad papers have been published. That should make it easier for him to get his work published in a proper venue, not harder.--Stephan Schulz (talk) 13:37, 7 October 2009 (UTC)

I presume McK = McIntyre (for anyone else that was wondering). Just to help me out, can anyone point to the wikipedia policy and what it says about "peer review" as a requirement particularly when applied to a subject of such a high profile political nature as global warming? 85.210.112.144 (talk) 14:54, 7 October 2009 (UTC)

You presume wrong. Did you read your source? It's by economist Ross McKitrick. The policy you are looking for is WP:CONSENSUS - it has long been the consensus that this article is about the science of global warming and that we base the article only on the best available sources, not on Greenpeace statements or Exxon shills. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 15:15, 7 October 2009 (UTC)

OK, let me rephrase that question. How, in what you tell me is supposed to be a scientific article do we cover the numerous suggestions of the misuse of the scientific process as details in articles such as this . To be blunt, how do we address the criticisms that a small group of people have failed to appropriately apply the peer review process, when there are some editors here that are insisting that only material from those same "peers" - the one who are being criticised can be included in the article. There is inherently a conflict of interest here and we need to find a way around it! 85.210.112.144 (talk) 15:29, 7 October 2009 (UTC)

There are a huge number of scientists, there are many scientific journals. Scientific fraud is dealt with effectively within the scientific community, see e.g. here. Count Iblis (talk) 15:35, 7 October 2009 (UTC)

To add to CI's post above, the scientific method isn't perfect and isn't perfectly followed, but it sure beats any alternative. Climatology is nowhere near the only area which has problems with data sharing. Just look at physical anthropology - their findings almost always rely on access to artifacts or fossils, which is often difficult to get because the people that have them want to no competition - they want to be the expert on that specific topic. That goes against the spirit of the scientific method, and those involved in that sort of behavior should be reprimanded. However, I don't believe for a minute that the findings of climatologists are based on fraud or conspiracy, just that their peer review could be improved upon, like in almost all areas of science. Ignignot (talk) 16:13, 7 October 2009 (UTC)

Global temperature short-term stability

The following BBC report was removed from this dissusion page: . In summary, it discusses the same topic in the NYTimes a couple of weeks ago that global temperatures have been steady over the last 10 years. Please discuss the impact of this below. Cla68 (talk) 18:37, 11 October 2009 (UTC)

See FAQ Question 7. Note the BBC article is shaky; e.g., it calls Piers Corbyn a "solar scientist." Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 19:09, 11 October 2009 (UTC)

Just read FAQ Q7. This is an old chestnut. I fully support the (admittedly unofficial) policy of keeping this article purely based on mainstream published science and discussing the non-scientific public's reactions and opinions elsewhere. And that includes the scribblings and utterances of ill- and partially-informed news reporters and all other media people, celebrities and personalities. --Nigelj (talk) 19:15, 11 October 2009 (UTC) (edit conflict with SBHB above)

1. http://commerce.senate.gov/pdf/reiter-042606.pdf
2. http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110008597
3. http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/obamas-climate-guru-paint-your-roof-white-1691209.html

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